PM Bonds
High-probability event contracts for stable yields
PM Bonds are high-probability prediction market contracts (>85% implied odds) that function similarly to traditional bonds. You earn yields from the time value of near-certain outcomes.
Lower probability = higher yield. The market prices risk. A 99% probability contract might yield 0.1% while an 85% contract could yield 2-3% annually.
Bonds settle when the event resolves. Most pay $1 per share if correct, minus your entry cost. Daily settlement options available on select platforms.
Active Bonds
+3 this month
Avg Probability
High certainty
Avg Yield Range
Annualized
Total Liquidity
Across platforms
Sun rises tomorrow
Will the sun rise tomorrow? A near-certain event contract perfect for capital preservation.
Yield
0.001%
Maturity
1 day
Liquidity
$2.4M
US exists in 2026
Will the United States exist as a sovereign nation through December 31, 2026?
Yield
0.15%
Maturity
1 year
Liquidity
$1.8M
BTC above $1 by EOY
Will Bitcoin remain above $1 by end of year? Virtually guaranteed crypto stability.
Yield
0.001%
Maturity
Variable
Liquidity
$890K
SpaceX Starship launch 2025
Will SpaceX successfully launch Starship in 2025? High-probability space milestone.
Yield
1.45%
Maturity
8 months
Liquidity
$3.2M
2025 has 365 days
Will the year 2025 contain exactly 365 days? Non-leap year certainty.
Yield
0.01%
Maturity
1 year
Liquidity
$450K
Apple remains public company
Will Apple Inc. remain a publicly traded company through 2025?
Yield
0.38%
Maturity
1 year
Liquidity
$1.2M
PM Bond Calculator
Estimated Return
$1,063.83
+6.38% annualized yield
Estimates assume no counterparty risk. Actual yields may vary based on platform fees and market conditions.