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The Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Optimal Position Sizing
Learn how to mathematically determine the optimal bet size for any prediction market opportunity. Includes downloadable calculator and real-world examples from political and sports markets.
What You'll Learn
- Calculate optimal bet size
- Adjust for correlation
- Bankroll management rules
- Real market examples
Featured Experts
Dr. Sarah Chen
Quantitative Analyst
Former Goldman Sachs derivatives trader. Specializes in prediction market microstructure and liquidity analysis.
Marcus Williams
Political Strategist
15 years in campaign analytics. Pioneered polling-to-markets correlation models for election forecasting.
Elena Rodriguez
DeFi Researcher
Blockchain analyst focusing on decentralized prediction protocols. PhD in Economics from MIT.
James Park
Sports Analytics Director
Built predictive models for NBA and NFL teams. Applies sports betting inefficiencies to PM edge.
Latest Content
The Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Optimal Sizing
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The PMP Podcast: Interview with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour
Upcoming Events
Live AMA: 2026 Election Outlook
Marcus Williams
Mar 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET
Workshop: Advanced Order Flow
Dr. Sarah Chen
Mar 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
NBA Playoffs Market Preview
James Park
Mar 22, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET