March 13, 2026 at 11:57 AM UTC•1 min read•by Staff Editor
Prediction markets called the 2026 Oscar winners with 89% accuracy
An analysis of Polymarket and Manifold odds going into the Academy Awards found prediction markets outperformed expert critics and statistical models.
predmktpost.comPrediction markets demonstrated remarkable forecasting accuracy for the 2026 Academy Awards, correctly calling 89% of major category winners based on final pre-ceremony odds.
The study compared prediction market odds to expert predictions from five leading film publications and two statistical forecasting models.
Best Actress was the most striking result — the surprise winner was not in any expert top 3 but was the clear favorite on prediction markets for two weeks running.
