March 18, 2026 at 1:57 AM UTC•1 min read•by Staff Editor
Superforecasters vs prediction markets: who called the 2026 Fed pivot better?
A direct comparison of the Good Judgment Project elite forecasters against Kalshi and Polymarket prices on Federal Reserve rate decisions reveals surprising divergences.
predmktpost.comWhen the Federal Reserve announced its surprise 50-basis-point rate cut in February 2026, both superforecasters and prediction markets claimed vindication.
Our analysis shows prediction markets consistently assigned a 5-10% higher probability to the realized outcome than Good Judgment Project superforecasters across all five 2025-2026 Fed meetings.
On the December surprise, where consensus was badly wrong, prediction markets recovered and updated faster than GJP by an average of 4.2 hours after initial data release.
